Ex Post Trade Facto
I’m trying to make sense of all of the noise building up to the trade deadline, because there wasn’t anything ear-piercing or earth-shattering that happened this week. There were some deals that raised my eyebrow (singular): Dallas passing Halpern to Tampa Bay as part of the package for Brad Richards, which I think will reduce Halpern’s ice time and efficiency; the Penguins picking up a Hoss(a) and a Big Hal (Gill) in exchange for young guns; Peter Forsberg rejoining the Avalanche for what seems like his 17th tour in the NHL. Let’s start there with some overly general comments:
Cap-o-nomics and the trade deadline are intimately tied. Yes, it’s possible for GMs to sign players like Forsberg right at the trade deadline, or for guys like Niedermeyer to decide to un-retire at the last minute and create a pro-rated cap hit. That said, the team is without the use of that player’s skills, leadership and point-generating capabilities until the deal is done. If Anaheim strides into the playoffs in the middle of the Western dog pack, I’d feel confident in saying it was due to Niedermeyer and Selanne returning mid-season; but I’m not convinced they’re going to roll deep into May one way or the other. Same thing goes for Forsberg: if the Rocky Mountain high fixes his ankles, good for him and the Avs, but I’m not betting on it. Commit for the season and build the chemistry. The flip side of this argument also applies — new players traded to a team aren’t likely to be effective for at least part of season, if not longer as they discover their place(s) and roles. Best example: The Hockey News railed on the Langenbrunner/Nieweundyk trade for McKay/Arnott as one of the worst all-time by Dallas, but it wasn’t clear that it was one of the best for the Devils until this year when Langenbrunner assumed the captaincy. This is why I feel like Halpern is getting scrogged in the Tampa Bay trade: he went from cap of the Caps to Dallas as a free agent, having one of his better years in the big D, only to end up in the standings toilet with the Bolts. Here’s hoping his ice time remains constant as TB puts his to good defensive use, but I’m not confident they’ll figure out what to do with him. Remember, this is the same management group that signed Richards to a 5-year deal for almost $40M in 2006. Which brings us to…
Long-term deals should be the centerpiece of a team’s plan. Clearly the Capitals are putting their capital where their mouths are, signing Ovechkin for an A-Rod sized deal (but with results, not whining). Two years ago, when Tampa Bay signed Brad Richards, the howls went up about the deal being over-priced, but Lightning management stuck to its charges and claimed the deal gave them a baseline to build on. Oops. For anyone who will defend Richards by saying that he didn’t know that Tampa Bay would be only slightly ahead of the Cuban national team in geography and the NHL standings, well, sorry, but he signed a long-term deal. It’s nice that he’s going to get to play for a Cup contender, but Tampa Bay looks doubly dumb — and will be suspect in future dealings. There’s a counterpoint here as well: Pittsburgh made out wonderfully this week by grabbing Marian Hossa (but see point (1) above) but gave up some up and coming talent in Christensen and Armstrong. If longer-term deals are going to be shelled out, why not focus on 2nd line talent like these guys, giving them the piece of mind to develop as team and individual players, without needing a spark plug gap gauge to measure room under the cap?
Big ticket deals are becoming less interesting than big-ticket development. Teams seem to be stimulated this year by talent developed in the various farm systems rather than acquired through trades and free-agent signings. While Gomez is having a good year with the Rangers, it’s Dubinksy and Dawes who are creating excitement. Are Zubrus and Rachunek (when he plays) having as much impact as, say, Zajac and Oduya? If Brad Richards suddenly improves his plus/minus out of the winter weather zone (-25 at last look) and closer to parity with the Stars, then maybe I’ll be convinced otherwise, but for now I believe that comments about “getting the last piece” are mis-guided. Pieces don’t win Stanley Cups, teams do.