Every year, the good folks at The Hockey News make their predictions, and like all predictions, they are based on a limited view offered in August, before training camps open, before we see who the shining new rookie lights are, before we see who is a step slower and older and who is playing like it’s their last season.
The table below isn’t perfect because it only reflects results as of Saturday afternoon, and there are another half dozen games left to play that might move teams one spot up or down. But it’s close enough for editorial scrutiny. I sorted the table by the gap between where THN predicted a team would finish and where they actually closed out the 08-09 campaign. A negative gap means THN under-appreciated the team and their actual finish was higher than predicted. Positive gaps mean disappointed fans and over-zealous reporting; the team didn’t live up to someone’s expectations.
Before analysis, here’s the data:
| Team | THN | Actual | Gap |
| Boston | 10 | 1 | -9 |
| Vancouver | 11 | 3 | -8 |
| St Louis | 15 | 8 | -7 |
| Columbus | 12 | 6 | -6 |
| New Jersey | 7 | 3 | -4 |
| Chicago | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| Calgary | 8 | 5 | -3 |
| Florida | 12 | 9 | -3 |
| Carolina | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| Toronto | 14 | 12 | -2 |
| San Jose | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Washington | 3 | 2 | -1 |
| Buffalo | 11 | 10 | -1 |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Nashville | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Los Angeles | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| NY Islanders | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Detroit | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| NY Rangers | 6 | 7 | 1 |
| Colorado | 14 | 15 | 1 |
| Anaheim | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Phoenix | 10 | 14 | 4 |
| Edmonton | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| Tampa Bay | 9 | 14 | 5 |
| Ottawa | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| Montreal | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Minnesota | 3 | 10 | 7 |
| Dallas | 4 | 12 | 8 |
I chose this sort order because it dismisses the no-brainers, like thinking the Islanders and Avalanche would be learning how to spell “Tavares”, while also discounting an innocuous call like putting Nashville or the Rangers on the playoff bubble. Gaps in the -2 to +2 range mean that within the boundaries of journalistic science (there’s a statistically improbable phrase), THN got it right. Not interesting.
But look at the bottom of the pile: Dallas, Minnesota, Montreal, Ottawa all severely underpeformed. Was it injuries, goaltending, scoring, team chemistry, or all of the above at various times? Maybe the only consistent theme in every one of those cities is that there wasn’t a single break out player or defining event. Sure, Backstrom had a good year in net for the Wild, and Montreal was celebrating a century of the rouge, blanc et bleu, but “bleh” seemed to appear much more than it should have in the hockey coverage at the bottom of the list.
On the other end: Boston had a great year with Krejci, Wheeler, and Thomas becoming household names to rival those on Red Sox jerseys. Calgary just missed a 3-spot finish, and the addition of Mike Cammalleri (as well as Big Bert and Jolli Olli Jokinen) turned them into a team that will go as deep as Kippy’s goaltending allows. St. Louis moved up higher than anyone predicted, and broke a Bluesy early spring.
Starting Sunday afternoon, none of this really matters. It’s who wants to play break out hockey from now until June.
